Live · Commodities · 7m Live · 7m

BRENT 76.010 WTI 71.410 NAT GAS 2.9400 GOLD 4,113.70 ▲ 0.23% SILVER 60.165 ▲ 0.60% PLATINUM 1,629.00 ▲ 0.67% PALLADIUM 1,276.30 ▲ 0.79% COPPER 6.2820 ▲ 0.78% WHEAT 640.25 ▲ 1.31% CORN 461.00 ▲ 5.25% SOYBEAN 1,190.75 ▼ 0.48% COFFEE 318.60 ▼ 7.11% SUGAR 14.860 ▼ 0.13% COCOA 6,100.00 ▲ 3.06% COTTON 80.870 ▲ 1.19% EUR/USD 1.1422 ▲ 0.01% USD/JPY 161.82 ▲ 0.01% GBP/USD 1.3405 USD/CHF 0.8078 ▼ 0.01% data · yahoo finance · exchangerate-api · finnhub BRENT 76.010 WTI 71.410 NAT GAS 2.9400 GOLD 4,113.70 ▲ 0.23% SILVER 60.165 ▲ 0.60% PLATINUM 1,629.00 ▲ 0.67% PALLADIUM 1,276.30 ▲ 0.79% COPPER 6.2820 ▲ 0.78% WHEAT 640.25 ▲ 1.31% CORN 461.00 ▲ 5.25% SOYBEAN 1,190.75 ▼ 0.48% COFFEE 318.60 ▼ 7.11% SUGAR 14.860 ▼ 0.13% COCOA 6,100.00 ▲ 3.06% COTTON 80.870 ▲ 1.19% EUR/USD 1.1422 ▲ 0.01% USD/JPY 161.82 ▲ 0.01% GBP/USD 1.3405 USD/CHF 0.8078 ▼ 0.01% data · yahoo finance · exchangerate-api · finnhub BRENT 76.010 WTI 71.410 NAT GAS 2.9400 GOLD 4,113.70 ▲ 0.23% SILVER 60.165 ▲ 0.60% PLATINUM 1,629.00 ▲ 0.67% PALLADIUM 1,276.30 ▲ 0.79% COPPER 6.2820 ▲ 0.78% WHEAT 640.25 ▲ 1.31% CORN 461.00 ▲ 5.25% SOYBEAN 1,190.75 ▼ 0.48% COFFEE 318.60 ▼ 7.11% SUGAR 14.860 ▼ 0.13% COCOA 6,100.00 ▲ 3.06% COTTON 80.870 ▲ 1.19% EUR/USD 1.1422 ▲ 0.01% USD/JPY 161.82 ▲ 0.01% GBP/USD 1.3405 USD/CHF 0.8078 ▼ 0.01% data · yahoo finance · exchangerate-api · finnhub

— CEST · Vienna

Trade Signal Labs · Vol. II

Trading the tides / research instruments.

Quantifying execution integrity and policy risk with sovereign data — live AIS vessel tracking, the Policy-Execution Integrity Model, and a small library of working tools kept in semi-public beta.

Live · Project Status — CEST

Vessels in pool: —
Working papers: 01
Malacca / Hormuz: — · —in bbox
Last AIS sync: —min ago

Lab № 01

Live AIS · Vessels in the corridor.

Currently selected — Click a vessel marker to inspect —

— Vessels in pool awaiting first sync

— Malacca strait in bounding box

— Hormuz strait in bounding box

— Suez approach in bounding box

● COMMODITY INTELLIGENCE HUB / SIG-LAB-01

GLOBAL ENERGY FLOWS

MARKET SIGNALS

CHOKEPOINT ANALYTICS

Suez Canal NORMAL / 22vph

Panama Canal DELAY / 14vph

Strait of Malacca HIGH DENSITY

VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX-COM)

24.5 ▲ +1.2%

P · 01

The corridor commute calculator.

A small tool to plot the real cost-in-time of Vienna ↔ Singapore against rotated alternatives.

Tool · live · MIT

P · 02

Heuriger finder.

A Vienna-only walking map of the season's open Buschenschanken, with elevation and tram-stop distance.

Tool · live

P · 03

AIS replay canvas.

A WebGL playback engine for archived vessel positions — used internally for the chokepoint pieces.

Internal · semi-public

P · 04

Sanction list diff watcher.

Watches OFAC, EU, and SECO consolidated lists nightly. Posts a diff to the journal RSS when material.

Bot · live

P · 05

The colophon.

How this journal is built, hosted, typeset, and the small choices behind it.

Document · evergreen

P · 06

FX desk-tape.

A quiet two-row ticker for the major FX crosses. Lives in the corner of a screen, nowhere else.

Tool · live

.01 / Working paper

Singapore, SG· 12 DEC 2025

Abstract

This paper presents a novel approach to quantifying execution risk in fragmented liquidity venues. We utilize a proprietary stochastic model to estimate slippage probability under …

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